Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast for the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing concerns over the impact of Trump tariffs on inflation and economic growth. The bank warns that these tariffs are likely to spike inflation while stunting growth, leading to heightened recession risks. Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts in the near future as a response to the deteriorating growth outlook. The economic implications of a potential 15 percentage point tariff hike in 2025 remain a concern, with predictions of inflation reaching 3.5% amidst ongoing tariff uncertainties. Analysts express skepticism that fiscal policy measures can effectively offset the negative impact of these tariffs on the economy.