Recent intelligence assessments indicate that a large-scale military action against Iran is unlikely to result in the overthrow of its regime, even in the aftermath of potential strikes. Reports from various US intelligence officials and classified documents suggest that the Revolutionary Guard would likely fill any power vacuum created by the removal of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Despite ongoing military tension and potential attacks, skepticism persists regarding the effectiveness of such military strategies to achieve regime change in Iran. Concerns over shrinking weapon stockpiles and uncertainty about the outcomes of US and Israeli strategies contribute to the prevailing doubts about a successful transition of power in the country.