Recent market fluctuations have seen oil prices experience significant volatility in response to escalating and de-escalating tensions between the US and Iran. A top energy expert has raised the likelihood of a US military action against Iran to 75%, signaling that geopolitical risks remain high. However, diplomatic talks initiated by former President Trump have led to an easing of fears regarding oil supply shocks, causing prices to slide more than 4% at times. Despite these fluctuations, oil prices had previously surged past $70 per barrel amid worries of potential US attacks on Iran. Analysts caution that any stabilization in oil markets will depend on the geopolitical dynamics and upcoming negotiations, as institutions remain wary of abrupt reversals in the situation.